Ondo Guber Shocker: Why PDP Faced Its Worst Defeat Since 1999

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faced a historic low in the recently concluded Ondo State governorship election, securing just 117,845 votes—its worst performance since 1999. This poor showing highlights critical challenges faced by the opposition party, exacerbating its struggle to remain relevant in the state’s political landscape.

PDP’s Performance in Ondo Elections Over the Years

Historically, PDP’s presence in Ondo State has been robust, but the recent decline is striking:

1999: 195,682 votes
2003: 655,968 votes
2007: 349,258 votes
2012: 155,961 votes
2016: 150,380 votes
2020: 195,791 votes

In contrast, the 2024 election saw the party plunge to 117,845 votes, a sharp drop that raises concerns about its diminishing influence.

Voter Turnout at Record Low

The election also recorded the lowest voter turnout in the state’s history, with just 28.29% of eligible voters participating. From a peak of 59.16% in 2003, turnout has been on a steady decline, reflecting growing voter apathy across Nigeria.

Key Reasons Behind PDP’s Poor Performance

Divided Party Structure
The PDP went into the election fractured, with internal wrangling and multiple defections weakening its foundation. Two prominent aspirants defected—Chief Olusola Ebiseni joined the Labour Party (LP), while Bamidele Akingboye moved to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). Their departures split PDP’s voting bloc.
Tinubu and APC’s Strategic Push
President Bola Tinubu directed key APC leaders to ensure victory in Ondo, branding the election as a “must-win.” This directive was backed by financial resources, which created a significant edge for the ruling party. The presence of nine APC governors during the campaigns further underscored the seriousness of their effort.
Ajayi Agboola’s Weak Home Support
PDP candidate Ajayi Agboola failed to win his own local government, Ese-Odo, where he garnered only 7,814 votes against APC’s 14,511 votes. This underscored his limited grassroots appeal, even among his base.
Vote Buying and Financial Disparity
The election was heavily influenced by vote trading. While PDP reportedly offered between ₦7,000 and ₦10,000 per voter, APC dominated with offers of ₦20,000 to ₦25,000. PDP’s State Collation Agent alleged that over ₦35 billion was deployed by APC to influence voters, tipping the scale against PDP.
Incumbency Advantage
Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa leveraged the power of incumbency, using state resources and appointments strategically. His promise of serving only one term also gained the support of politicians from Ondo North and Central districts, who viewed him as less of a long-term threat.
Mimiko’s Neutral Stance
Former Governor Olusegun Mimiko, a potential PDP ally, stayed neutral throughout the campaigns. Without his backing, Ajayi’s campaign lost a significant source of political clout.

Opposition’s Reactions and Allegations

The Labour Party (LP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) rejected the results, citing irregularities, vote trading, and voter intimidation. SDP’s candidate, Bamidele Akingboye, described the election as a “sham” and demanded its cancellation.

Key Takeaways from the Election

The APC’s strategic financial and political dominance overwhelmed PDP.
Internal divisions and defections severely weakened the PDP’s structure.
Voter apathy remains a significant issue, reflecting broader disillusionment with the electoral process.

For a comprehensive breakdown of voter turnout trends and how they shape Nigeria’s democracy, read this article on voter apathy in Nigeria.